Dark times ahead

Part Two

Over the past decade or so, I had come to largely avoid hanging out with my friends because I felt I was a big downer. I have studied history all my life and have clear eyes into the future we are all facing. Inevitably conversation would turn to the future and I had nothing but doom and gloom to offer, and I didn’t feel right always being a bummer when we hung out.

I am warning you right now this is one of those sessions. You aren’t going to like anything I have to say today. But, if you want a realistic assessment for how things are going to go for America, Ukraine, Europe and the world for the next couple of decades, settle in and let me tell you. You can at least be prepared.

I think we will start with America, after a brief background, then move on to Ukraine, and then finally Europe. For a while longer, the rest of the world will, to a degree, be carried along by events in those places.

First of all, the reality of climate change is that it is too fucking late to do anything meaningful. It is clear there is no global will to even attempt to meaningfully slow climate change.

The reality of that means that there will not only be less areas of land for growing crops worldwide, amidst a still rapidly growing worldwide population, but also a belt of unihabitable land will appear and grow from the equator due to it simply being too hot for humans to survive there. On top of the impossibility of growing crops there.

This will inevitably cause mass migrations of people from the uninhabitable regions to areas where they could survive.

This is going to cause some wars. And the natural reaction for humans in the nations that don’t want large numbers of immigrants, or perhaps (foolishly) any at all, are to turn to some form of authoritarianism, fascism, totalitarianism, whatever you’d like to call it.

In a future of accelerating dwindling of resources it seems highly likely that totalitarianism will take over the world.

Until last night, I had some hopes that we still had a few decades before that process really kicked off, and that we had at least four to eight more years before America slid further into fascism and the wars for controlling valuable land began.

Trump taking power is only part of the problem. Aside from how this Kremlin asset being in charge of the US affects Ukraine, Trump being president is not as bad for the US as Vance or any other fascist stooge that follows Trump, because Trump is so incredibly incompetent.

Don’t be lulled into thinking that because we survived Trump last time, and he and the rest of the Republican party was too incompetent to capitalize too much on it that it will be that easy this time.

Last time, Trump (and everyone else) was surprised by his winning. Caught off-guard, the worst elements of oligarchy and fascism weren’t ready to capitalize on Trumps victory. As well, Trump was enamored with his power, didn’t relinguish it, and packed all of his appointments with incompetents. By the end of his last term though he was clearly sick of the responsibilities of president, and this time his fellow Republicans are no longer concerned about re-election. He has been promising his electorate “you will never have to vote again” and they mean it.

With Trump tired of the responsibilities of the presidency and clearly ailing mentally and physically, and only wanting to avoid jail and have the prestige of the office, the fascists, who have clearly articulated their plans for gutting democracy and instituting a fascist state in their Project 2025, of which Vance is a part of, will have free reign to proceed and deliver on their promise of Americans never having to vote again.

They want to rid America of all opposition and anyone different. They want to jail (at least) any journalists that speak out against them. They’ve shown you what they want to do to women already in the states that they control already.

This is combined with Trump, a Russian asset being president. Between doing what Putin tells him to, due to whatever kompromat Russia has on him (if there is anything more than outright owning him, having repeatedly bailed him out of bankruptcy), and Trumps own idiotic ideas, and Project 2025’s policies, America is going to take a big hit economically.

And so the whole world will. Everything is going to cost more. The dollar won’t be the reserve currency of the world any longer. Putin wants to defeat the US, he’s butthurt about losing the Cold War, and Trump doesn’t understand tariffs, and Project 2025’s policies will be an economic disaster as well. In addition, clearly, no one can trust America anymore, and all of that will translate into the world transistioning to something else as its reserve currency, which will further negatively impact the United States economically.

In addition, for the past two and half years, American tax dollars have poured into weapons manufacturing, which, no matter how you feel about that, provided high paying jobs, and just like the high dollar aerospace jobs at Boeing used to provide for many other jobs, for all the people who sold those workers sandwiches, groceries, gas, and everything else, this has positively affected the American economy. Trump is Putin’s puppet and is butthurt that Ukraine didn’t go along with his hairbrained scheme to slander Biden last time around, so Trump will be ending support for Ukraine, likely on his first day in office.

This will mean not only the sudden end of lots of manufacturing jobs in the US, but America can, does, and will block Ukraine’s other allies from transferring American-made weapons to Ukraine. Currently Biden is preventing England from transferring long range weapons to Ukraine out of ridiculous fear of escalation by Russia if Ukraine uses these. Trump will do the same thing, except he will extend it to all American made weapons, not just these long range ones with a few American components in them.

Just like Switzerland and Germany have seen a sharp decrease in weapons sales due to their not allowing arms and ammunition manufactured there to actually be used in war when countries need it, America suddenly stopping supplying arms in the middle of a war and further, blocking the transfer of weapons with even American made components in them will cause countries all over the world to choose to buy arms from countrties that don’t pull this shit, like France or South Korea.

However you feel about arms production and warfare, this too will have a negative impact on the US economy and thus the world economy.

I am not going to bother to go deep into what Americans are facing. Let me suffice it to say that historians will be comparing this to Germany in 1933 and the Reichstag fire. No hyperbole. The right want you in camps. That you don’t exit from. Trump and his ilk have been talking openly and proudly about this for some time and have won. All I can say is, organize, arm yourselves, learn martial arts, bury or hide arms and food, and prepare for the worst, because it is coming.

Trump pulling support for Ukraine is going to have long-term, wide-ranging effects on how countries behave. America has proven beyond all doubt that it isn’t a trustworthy ally and you cannot rely on it to back you. Pax Americana is over. Some of you may think that is a good thing, but the chaos that replaces it is going to make for a world with more wars and more misery. And more refugees, putting more pressure on governments to be authoritarian.

In addition, handing Putin a win in Ukraine greenlights land grabs around the world. Our failure to adequately back Ukraine, and then pull support completely, green lights quite a few nations world-wide launching wars of conquest over their neighbors, especially with an avowed isolationist Trump presidency.

Finally addressing the issue of how this affects Ukraine, my greatest concern is the loss of funds supporting Ukraine’s government. Ukraine had roughly 45 million people before Russia began full scale warfare. At least 9 million of those people are displaced now. Many of them not in Ukraine, almost all of them no longer paying taxes to the Ukrainian government because they’ve lost their jobs and businesses due to Russia’s invasion.

In addition, Ukraine’s electrical infrastructure has been badly damaged, and Ukraine used to be an energy exporter. Many villages and cities no longer have running potable water thanks to endless Russian attacks on their water supplies. For example, I only have water for a few hours in the morning and a few hours in the evening at my current apartment and I cannot drink it.

All of this and other wartime disruptions of Ukraine’s economy, have badly affected Ukraine’s tax base, while at the same time, Ukraine has to purchase arms, let contracts for local production of weapons and ammunition, and pay the salaries of a dramatically expanded army, as well as take care of the ever growing numbers of wounded and maimed.

Currently, Ukraine’s tax base isn’t nearly enough to handle all of these things, and Ukraine’s government is being economically propped up by the United States and various European countries.

As it should be.

Not only is Ukraine serving as the shield of Europe, preventing a wider conflict, that due to the United Startes NATO treaty obligations would have US soldiers fighting Russia directly alongside our European allies, but we all promised Ukraine if it gave up the huge nuclear arsenal that they inherited from the Soviet Union that we would protect them from just the kind of aggression Russia has been prosecuting against them for the past ten years, most dramatically for the last three.

Ukraine may not necessarily lose to Russia with the total loss of American support that will happen in January, but only if Europe is willing, able, and fucking quickly steps up to at the bare minimum, commit to providing the Ukrainian government with the funds to continue paying its soldiers, hospital workers, power plant workers, etc, etc. This is the absolute bare minimum required for Ukraine to continue to successfully defend itself. And it’d be best if the EU immediately announced not only its intention to do so, but that it has a plan in place to make it a reality.

Without economic support, I fear Ukraine’s government will collapse and it will be a failed state, unable to deliver services due to the economic damage and demands of the war. Even an unjust peace may not save it from this fate if Europe doesn’t commit to continuing to economically support Ukraine. Which is only fair, it’s the fucking least you could do for a people fighting and dying for you.

Let’s assume that the EU, or some consortium of European nations step up and properly economically support Ukraine’s government. Allow me to point out at this point, that even now, half of Ukraine’s own indigenous arms industries sit idle for lack of funds to let contracts to produce arms to defend their country. This is before the loss of US economic support. So, suffice it to say, I am not terribly optimistic about Europe getting its act together in time and supporting Ukraine economically.

Assuming they actually do, we now have the problem of the loss of US supplied arms to address. If Ukraine can hang on long enough, perhaps South Korea, Japan, or other countries can begin producing some of the munitions needed for export like HIMARS rockets, Patriot air defense missiles, and the like.

Recently, we just barely got to the point where Ukrainian artillery mostly have enough ammunition to fire back when fired upon or when they see targets. That was with America adding shifts to artillery shell factories and opening new ones. With the loss of US support, Ukrainian artillery will be rationed again. Europe is working on expanding artillery capacity, but it will take years for it to replace the amount supplied by the United States. Eventually, they will, and those US jobs will be lost forever, but for several critical years, that production capacity will not be there for Ukraine.

Europe has a choice to make right now. They can either hoard all their ammunition and weapons for a war that might happen if Ukraine falls, or they can actually give Ukraine what it needs to fight this war and support it, and thereby prevent the war that fear coming later, by defeating Russia now.

Up until now, the nations of Europe that haven’t been Russia’s direct neighbors before have been quite parsimonious with their aid. France, Germany, and many other nations are sitting on large stockpiles of air defense systems, artillery shells, and many other desperately needed weapons and munitions, in case they may someday have to use them, and because they don’t want to lose the investment in already having bought them.

If Europe doesn’t step into the breach opened by the United States having cowardly backed out of doing the right thing and supporting a nation fighting against genocide and a land grab, then Ukraine will fall, Russia will win, and the Russian border will advance to Poland, Romania, and Hungrary. With Hungary being virtually a Russian vassal already, that effectively puts Russian power projection at the borders of Austria (where the fascist party just won 29% of the vote and may form a coalition government with the conservative party), Slovakia, Croatia, Slovenia, and Serbia also border Hungary. Serbia is another close ally of Russia, and with Russia troops likely having easy transit access through Hungary, Romania would be further flanked by Russian forces. Russia having a clear path to Serbia threatens pretty much the entirety of the rest of the Balkans with direct invasion and virtually surrounds Romania.

All of this can be prevented by properly supporting Ukraine, but Europe needs to step the fuck up, right now, and not only provide Ukraine with sufficient financial support but also all the cannons, trucks, rockets, artillery shells and all the other implements of war they have been hoarding.

Russia has been exceedingly clear about wanting to resurrect the Tsars empire. They make no bones about it. As bizarre as it seems to the rest of us, those backwards assholes think they are better than everyone else, and that they deserve it. They also believe might makes right and that they can just take it.

And we are proving them right with our half-hearted support of Ukraine.

It’s time for Europe to go all-in. Trying to defend Europe against the inevitable continuing Russian land grabs westwards after Russia seizes all of Ukraine will be much, much harder, and will cause the widening of this war that all the hand-wringing excuses about not providing arms so far are trying to prevent.

Everyone else has been very lucky so far that it has only been Ukrainians dying in this war, but if you let Ukraine fall, all of Europe will be sucked into the conflict that inevitably follows.

Trump will be lifting Russia’s sanctions. This will breathe new life into Russia’s economy, allowing it to limp along for longer. If Europe fails Ukraine too, Russia will acquire Ukraine’s resources, not just natural resources, but a lot of its people, industries, technologies, and tax base. This will give Russia enough to inevitably launch another war westwards into Europe, just as all the defense ministers of Europe have been warning about for several years now. Just as Russia currently prosecutes a genocide against its ethnic minorities by forcing them on Ukraine’s guns in wasteful meatwave attacks, it will in turn replenish its ranks by impressing Ukrainians and killing them off conquering the Baltic states, or whoever it decides is next. This is Russia’s way. Always has been. Still is.

Russia’s potential victory in Ukraine will embolden many other nations with grudges against neighbors, or coveting their land to launch their own wars as well. Expect Armenia to suffer even more again, along with a host of other countries, all due to democracies failure to defend itself.

America has made its choice. It has chosen darkness and is lost to us for the forseeable future. Maybe, somehow, elections will be held again in four years, and enough Americans will still be around to wrest power back from evil, but even if they do, no one can trust that it won’t just happen again in another four years.

Europe, you are democracy’s last hope. I don’t mean to sleight the other democracies out there, y’all just don’t have the economic and military capacity to affect things the way a potentially united Europe could, and aren’t geographically in the right spot either.

Europe HAS to step up and NOW.

The time for dithering, wringing hands, and worrying about escalation is over. If Europe unites, and throws its full support behind Ukraine, RIGHT NOW, then perhaps freedom doesn’t die with America.

If it doesn’t, well Orwell told us about that.

The choice is yours Europe.

Defend freedom now.

Give Ukraine everything it needs.

Or watch the march of authoritarianism sweep over you.

The last time fascism almost conquered the world, it was America that provided the strength to liberate everyone.

America is gone. At least for the next four years, and realistically, forever.

It is time for Europe to step forward, or forever surrender to darkness.

Because, this time, when totatitarianism wins, there is no going back. In a world of dwindling resources, growing disasters, endless warfare, and massive refugee migration, we won’t ever be going back to democracy from a world of fascism.

The choice is yours Europe.

The world waits with bated breath.

Karl Johnson

The Donbas, Ukraine

November 6th, 2024

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